Beckmann, Joscha; Geiger, Martin (2024): Expectations and the transmission of international uncertainty: Evidence from cross-country survey data. Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming).
Abstract
This paper evaluates (i) the transmission of global uncertainty shocks to the expectations of professionals and disagreement among them and (ii) the relevance of policy choices in open economies in the context of the impossible trinity. Relying on a large set of survey data covering a wide range of expected macroeconomic outcomes for 33 countries, we establish evidence for an expectation channel of global uncertainty shocks. Global uncertainty exerts significant and adverse effects on expectations over domestic macroeconomic outcomes across the board and also frequently spills over to disagreement over these outcomes, increasing domestic uncertainty. Finally, we identify nonlinear relationships between the policy choices in an open economy and the transmission of uncertainty shocks. Policy choices affect the expected downswing in GDP in the aftermath of uncertainty shocks, the expected response of monetary policy, and the exchange rate and disagreement over future macroeconomic outcomes.
Keywords: international uncertainty; expectations; impossible trinity.
JEL classification: D80; E32; E44; D84.
