Workshop in Empirical Macroeconomics 2026: Business Cycles in Times of Fragmentation and Uncertainty

15 Apr 2026 - Notification
On March 26-27, 2026, the fourth edition of the workshop Empircal Macroeconomics took place at the University of Innsbruck under the theme “Business Cycles in Times of Fragmentation and Uncertainty,“  co-organized with the Liechtenstein Institute and Johannes Kepler University Linz. Bringing together researchers working with macro and micro data and state-of-the-art empirical methods, the workshop examined current business cycle dynamics and their implications for fiscal and monetary policy.

The program opened on Thursday with a session on Beliefs and Bias in Expectations, followed by a session on Labor, Housing, and Inflation Dynamics, and a third session on Heterogeneity in Business Cycles. The afternoon included a city tour and coffee to encourage informal exchange among participants. The day concluded with a keynote lecture by Benjamin Born (University of Bonn, CEPR, CESifo, ifo), “Anchored in Troubled Waters: Monetary Unions and Uncertainty“ (with Luis Huxel, Gernot Müller, and Johannes Pfeifer), which showed that monetary unions leave the transmission of common uncertainty shocks unchanged but markedly dampen the effects of country-specific uncertainty by providing a nominal anchor that limits price-level risk.

Friday featured a curated session on Fragmentation and Uncertainty, highlighting new evidence on inflation and growth risk using surveys, the systematic origins of monetary policy shocks, and the effects of tariffs on firm expectations. Subsequent sessions focused on Credibility, Communication, and Trust, and on Monetary Policy, including novel approaches to identifying policy shocks and the effects of collateral and trade policy on monetary transmission.

In line with previous editions, the workshop combined rigorous empirical contributions with ample opportunities for discussion and collaboration. The presentations and debates provided fresh insights into how fragmentation and uncertainty shape business cycles and policy transmission, and generated a range of ideas for ongoing and future research projects. Over 25 researchers from universities, central banks, supervisory authorities, and research institutes from across Europe took part.

We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the University of Innsbruck – specifically the Office of the Vice-Rector for Research and the EPoS Research Center (Economy, Politics & Society) – as well as from the Liechtenstein Institute and Johannes Kepler University Linz. Additional support from the Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (project “Deconstructing Uncertainty Shocks“) enabled the invitation of leading experts in the field of economic uncertainty.

Organized by Max Breitenlechner (University of Innsbruck), Martin Geiger (Liechtenstein Institute), Jochen Güntner (Johannes Kepler University Linz), Johann Scharler (University of Innsbruck), and Marios Zachariadis (University of Cyprus), the event offered an excellent platform for scholarly exchange and networking in Innsbruck.

The detailed program can be downloaded here.

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Max Breitenlechner from the University of Innsbruck was one of the organisers of the workshop  

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Keynote speaker Benjamin Born during his presentation. 

About the cover photo: The participants took the opportunity to continue their discussions even outside the official workshop. The photo shows the group at the so called Golden Roof in Innsbruck’s old town.