Brunhart, Andreas; Geiger, Martin (2025): Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics [Vol 161, No. 5].

Using granular customs data, we construct a counterfactual of the evolution of Swiss goods exports under the premise that the minimum exchange rate policy would have been continued. We study the adjustment dynamics of aggregate and sectoral goods exports due to the exchange rate shock in January 2015 and examine potential differences between sectors. While Swiss total nominal exports drop in Swiss Franc, they increase in Euro. In real quantities, total exports remain largely unaffected indicating a high degree of resilience of the Swiss export industry. At the sectoral level, we observe a heterogeneous adjustment of exports consistent with varying degrees of supply-side adjustment flexibility.