Business Cycle INDEX KONSENS
Issue 1/2025 (February 17, 2025)
4th Quarter 2024: KonSens Remains in Negative Territory
| Graph | Interactive Graph |
| Data File (XLSX) | Archive |
| Method Paper |
The ongoing uncertainty in the global economy is putting pressure on global foreign trade. As a consequence, Liechtenstein’s business cycle weakness has continued. The value of the KonSens business cycle index increased slightly in the 4th quarter of 2024, from −1.1 to −0.8. Liechtenstein’s foreign goods trade continued to develop sluggishly and the company survey data was also rather weak. The KonSens has now been in negative territory for twelve quarters, which signals below-average quarterly growth in historical comparison. This is the longest negative phase since the start of the KonSens time series.
What is the KonSens?
The business cycle index KonSens by the Liechtenstein Institute is a quarterly, coincident composite indicator for Liechtenstein’s business cycle and consists of 16 individual economic indicators. It offers a timely aggregation of various – sometimes contradicting – business cycle signals to a consistent picture (with a publication lag of around 6 weeks). Applying various statistical methods, the KonSens generates for each quarter an indexed data point – adjusted for seasonal effects and with removal of the long-run growth trend – and shows whether real economic growth is above (boom) or below (recession) average since 1998. The Name KonSens originates from the conception of the «business cycle as a consensus» (Burns and Mitchell, 1946) of various individual economic impulses. But it is also the simple abbreviation of «Konjunktur-Sensor» (sensor of Liechtenstein’s business cycle situation).
The KonSens focuses on the measurement of the state of Liechtenstein’s business cycle, rather than on its determinants or influences. It represents a conceptual supplement to the ordinary focus on the Gross Domestic Product, is accessible on a timelier and more frequent basis than Liechtenstein’s annually published GDP and is less prone to revisions. It allows an easy interpretation for policy, public administration, media, companies and general public and combines different data origins/dimensions to improve the data base for economic analyses. Doing so, it enables better reporting, monitoring and surveillance. The quarterly KonSens is regularly published in the middle of the subsequent quarter and is a module of the «Applied Economic Analysis», which is supported by Government of the Principality of Liechtenstein.
Contact
For further information (also in English), please contact:
Dr. Andreas Brunhart, Head of Research Economics
