Macroeconomic shocks, expectations and uncertainty

Speaker
PD Dr. Martin Geiger, Research Fellow Economics at the Liechtenstein Institute
 

The cyclical pattern of economic upswings and downswings – the so-called business cycle – is a central subject of macroeconomic research. Analyzing the business cycle is crucial for understanding economic dynamics, developing effective economic policy measures, predicting future economic developments, mitigating risks and making informed decisions in both the public and private sectors. The lecture will discuss the role of macroeconomic expectations and uncertainties in the emergence and transmission of economic fluctuations.
 

The lecture is primarily based on work that was carried out as part of Martin Geiger’s recently completed habilitation. Among other things, Geiger shows that expectations often react to economic shocks in line with theory. However, the influence of these shocks on economic decisions and especially on consumption remains limited. Another focus is on analyzing the role of uncertainty in times of economic crisis, such as those triggered by Brexit or the COVID-19 pandemic. Selected studies and key findings will be discussed in the lecture and reference will be made to current macroeconomic challenges.
 

An aperitif will be served afterwards.